Elephant In Exile

There must be another fake marriage crisis!

Ok, I don't mean a crisis of people entering into fake marriages, although the Tom Cruise-Katie Holmes thing could be an indicator. I mean after all the hype and hubabaloo in 2004 on how marriage as an institution was about to collapse, 2005 was rather quite on this front. That's of course because the whole gay-marriage/marriage protection movement is a voter turnout gimmick and that's the same reason why we will see it come up again in 2006, and the very same reason why the Federal Marriage Amendment (FMA) will be brought to a vote and fail.

Interestingly enough, since Massachusetts legalized gay marriage nearly 3 years ago, no state has been forced to recognize its marriages and only one or two states have moved to adopt domestic partnership or gay marriage statutes. Even the federal Defense of Marriage Act has been upheld by a federal court in Florida. On the flip side, more than 17 states have adopted blanket bans on any form of domestic partnerships (straight or gay). The much-feared collapse of traditional marriage has not occurred, and doesn't seem to even be on the horizon. (Interestingly enough, the state with the lowest divorce rate remains.... Massachusetts).

In fact in 2006 more than 10 states will have the issue on the November ballot. As we saw in 2004, this is a great issue to get the fundamentalist crowd out to the polls. That's why yet again amid promises by Majority Leader Frist to bring up the FMA in the Senate, that I am telling you yet again that the FMA is a political ploy that is designed to fail. Passing the FMA would render the 10 or so state ballot initiatives moot, and as we know the latest get out the vote drive is getting us all hyped out about the gay marriage boogey man. So, as we approach the November elections, expect the Senate to make a lot of noise about this issue, and expect the FMA to yet again fail to garner the 67 or votes needed to pass. Sadly, perhaps elements of the GOP are hoping that the general publics faux rage about same-sex marriages/domestic partnerships (How dare they!) will also blind us to their ineffective governance and free spending ways. Mark my words on this one.