Wednesday, May 19, 2004
Bush's Cruel Summer
Having already spent roughly $50 million on ads, the President still finds himself in a near tie with Kerry and unfortunately for Bush, the summer seems to be conspiring against him.
First, more disgusting photos have emerged from Iraq (and probably will continue to drip out) embarrassing the military and alienating middle America. As Rumsfeld put it, these acts of a few are "Radio-Active" and will continue to eat away at the public's confidence in our mission. On June 30th Coalition forces are scheduled to hand over control to the Iraq provisional authority, but the security situation is far from stable. A delay will be met with increased skepticism and a rush to hand over could see increasing instability or even the new government asking us to leave.
The 9/11 Commissions report is schedule for release in July. It is likely to embolden the critics of our continued intelligence failures. Not only the failure to pick up on clues leading to 9/11 ( And as far as I know the only person in the intelligence services to loose their job over 9/11 was the agent who discovered Mousi in Minneapolis) but also the "slam dunk' case on WMD in Iraq. (Note: The recent Sarin incident may be a scintilla of evidence, but I doubt that the potential four liters of Sarin are enough to justify for the public the expenditure of more than $200 billion and 700+ lives).
Then there are gas prices. High gas prices will be a daily reminder to us car loving American's that all is not right in the world. Bush's refusal to release even a small amount of gas from the petroleum reserve will be heavily criticized and won't play well on main street. And of course increased gas prices cause the price of everything else to shoot up as well, especially in Bush's rural/Mid-West base. Not to mention increased cost of airfares (and don't forget the massive delays at security because Republicans nationalized security screeners then cut back their funding, but I digress).Bush suggested today that had his energy bill passed, we'd be enjoying more oil from Anwar, but the Elphant's contacts in the energy industry indicate that it would take at least ten years to bring those supplies to market. Of course there were those oil leases we sold off of Florida, then bought back at inflated prices shortly before Jeb's re-election, but that wasn't brought up so I won't mention it either.
Of course there's the buzz in DC that Bush will be making another MAJOR speech about expanding the space program, but its a safe bet to think that this will go over like a lead balloon (and with NASA safety record that's an apt metaphor). Yes, Mars is the answer- a red planet for a red America!
Clinton, for all his faults, was gifted when it came to 'feeling our pain.' In such times of change, sometimes all we need is a little Reagan-like reassurance. We're doing the right thing in Iraq, I am working to improve our intelligence community, I vetoed the absurd highway bill and I'm releasing oil from the petroleum reserve would be a good start. If not expect to see much more blue on the election map.
(Cheesy Analogy Alert)
Bush has his chance at a bite of the apple, but he should work to ensure that it doesn't result in a spell of continued Snow-White-paralysis that even his "Rove-ing" Prince Charming cannot break.
First, more disgusting photos have emerged from Iraq (and probably will continue to drip out) embarrassing the military and alienating middle America. As Rumsfeld put it, these acts of a few are "Radio-Active" and will continue to eat away at the public's confidence in our mission. On June 30th Coalition forces are scheduled to hand over control to the Iraq provisional authority, but the security situation is far from stable. A delay will be met with increased skepticism and a rush to hand over could see increasing instability or even the new government asking us to leave.
The 9/11 Commissions report is schedule for release in July. It is likely to embolden the critics of our continued intelligence failures. Not only the failure to pick up on clues leading to 9/11 ( And as far as I know the only person in the intelligence services to loose their job over 9/11 was the agent who discovered Mousi in Minneapolis) but also the "slam dunk' case on WMD in Iraq. (Note: The recent Sarin incident may be a scintilla of evidence, but I doubt that the potential four liters of Sarin are enough to justify for the public the expenditure of more than $200 billion and 700+ lives).
Then there are gas prices. High gas prices will be a daily reminder to us car loving American's that all is not right in the world. Bush's refusal to release even a small amount of gas from the petroleum reserve will be heavily criticized and won't play well on main street. And of course increased gas prices cause the price of everything else to shoot up as well, especially in Bush's rural/Mid-West base. Not to mention increased cost of airfares (and don't forget the massive delays at security because Republicans nationalized security screeners then cut back their funding, but I digress).Bush suggested today that had his energy bill passed, we'd be enjoying more oil from Anwar, but the Elphant's contacts in the energy industry indicate that it would take at least ten years to bring those supplies to market. Of course there were those oil leases we sold off of Florida, then bought back at inflated prices shortly before Jeb's re-election, but that wasn't brought up so I won't mention it either.
Of course there's the buzz in DC that Bush will be making another MAJOR speech about expanding the space program, but its a safe bet to think that this will go over like a lead balloon (and with NASA safety record that's an apt metaphor). Yes, Mars is the answer- a red planet for a red America!
Clinton, for all his faults, was gifted when it came to 'feeling our pain.' In such times of change, sometimes all we need is a little Reagan-like reassurance. We're doing the right thing in Iraq, I am working to improve our intelligence community, I vetoed the absurd highway bill and I'm releasing oil from the petroleum reserve would be a good start. If not expect to see much more blue on the election map.
(Cheesy Analogy Alert)
Bush has his chance at a bite of the apple, but he should work to ensure that it doesn't result in a spell of continued Snow-White-paralysis that even his "Rove-ing" Prince Charming cannot break.
Comments:
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Oh Grasshopper.... So much potential. Anwar reserves pale in comparision to the leases the Administration bought back off the Florida Coast. Also, politics is mostly about perception. Bush one understood this when he released oil from the petroleum reserves. I think gas should be more expensive, but the fact remains that for many of us, it is a baramoter of our well being. The economy was recovering slowly in 1992, but Bush I failed to acknowledge that folks were still hurting, it cost him his election.
As for WMD, I supported the war and think we could have gone in without that argument. But, Bush hung his hat on it as the primary reason for effecting regime change with Sadam's brutality as a second. We've been in 'control' of the country' for over a year and so far the only indication is this potential shell. In the face of non-state terrorists, pre-emption may be an important tool, but one shell does not an imminent threat make. Also, prior to the war there is not evidence that Sadam was in league with Al Queda. (Bathists are secular regimes). Regardless as a result of our insistance on the WMD issue, we've spilt our alliance, we've lost credibility in the world and are now in a position to make it more difficult to justify preemptive measures. Maybe that's why the Administration yesterday announced that their considering caving to North Korea and offering them new reactors.
I'm glad to see that Bush has announced that he will address the nation on the Iraq issue. This is something he should have done long ago. But his continued idle praise of Rummy and Tennent are jiving with the reality (or perception of reality). I mean Rummy didn't know we raided Chabali's home? Come on!
I stand fully by my predictions for a cruel summer for Bush. These events are easily forseeable for even the most inexperienced political hack. But the Bush team doesn't seem able to even percieve that.
I'm not above sharing my thoughts, even critical, when folks who are supposed to be carrying my idiology get off track.
Thanks for your continued comments.
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As for WMD, I supported the war and think we could have gone in without that argument. But, Bush hung his hat on it as the primary reason for effecting regime change with Sadam's brutality as a second. We've been in 'control' of the country' for over a year and so far the only indication is this potential shell. In the face of non-state terrorists, pre-emption may be an important tool, but one shell does not an imminent threat make. Also, prior to the war there is not evidence that Sadam was in league with Al Queda. (Bathists are secular regimes). Regardless as a result of our insistance on the WMD issue, we've spilt our alliance, we've lost credibility in the world and are now in a position to make it more difficult to justify preemptive measures. Maybe that's why the Administration yesterday announced that their considering caving to North Korea and offering them new reactors.
I'm glad to see that Bush has announced that he will address the nation on the Iraq issue. This is something he should have done long ago. But his continued idle praise of Rummy and Tennent are jiving with the reality (or perception of reality). I mean Rummy didn't know we raided Chabali's home? Come on!
I stand fully by my predictions for a cruel summer for Bush. These events are easily forseeable for even the most inexperienced political hack. But the Bush team doesn't seem able to even percieve that.
I'm not above sharing my thoughts, even critical, when folks who are supposed to be carrying my idiology get off track.
Thanks for your continued comments.
<< Home
