Monday, July 05, 2004


All Bets Are Off on FMA

Elephant is going to go out on a limb (which is dangerous for elephants) and predict that the Senate vote on FMA will not go forward as indicated next week. With the mediocre economic news, Kerry's pending announcement of a VP, and the reported lack of support for the measure a rational party leader pull back and continue to"work" the issue.

A vote that fails, or even fails to get a simple majority on a cloture motion would be a hit to the Republicans who could easily be painted as using gay men and women as a red herring for the lack of real conservative accomplishments during the last four years. Even more important, keeping the FMA alive by delaying a vote (even if the day never comes) will make it easier for the President and his socially conservative allies to scare the bejessuz out of the social right to get them to the polls. After all, the underlying reason for the amendment and the vote is to stir up the base which you can't do if the amendment is still born. FMA is, among other things, one of the pillars of Carl Rove's divide and conquer electoral strategy, Bush, et. al. need to keep stoking the fires and a July vote won't serve their purposes. But then again maybe it will....

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