Monday, October 25, 2004
The Presidential Election
The Pundits are Clueless, the Politicians Scared
After reading the papers, watching the news and listening to talk radio today during my journey to Atlanta I've come to the following conclusion: No one really knows whose going to win next Tuesday. Not the pundits, not the politicians and not the campaign consultants. For the next week, we the voter have all the power. So what's going on?
There are several factors that I think are driving the uncertainty in this election.
Fear
First and foremost it is the first presidential election after the vicious attacks on 9/11. For those of you outside of DC and New York, the attacks remain scarily abstract and the images just as horrifying today as they were that fateful day. We still feel the pain in DC and New York, in fact we look around when we get on the subway, but the attacks are less abstract for us as they hit our cities and we're doing our best to move on. The fear of future attacks is Bush's only remaining advantage. If this is the defining issue of the campaign, then get ready for Bush II.
Iraq
Iraq is a qualifier on the war on terror and Bush's Achilles’ heel. Launched on the grounds that Iraq possessed WMD and could use it against American targets, many of us put our faith that the government knew what it was talking about and would fight a war to win. Now, a year and a half after the initial invasion, there are no WMD and seemingly no plan to win the peace. In fact, today's revelation that 380 tons of high explosives underscore this issue. People may believe that Bush is better suited to fight the war on terror per se, but experience a bit of dissonance on if they feel safer as Iraq continues to slip into chaos. As Elephant has mentioned time and time again, Bush was elected because he was not Al Gore or Bill Clinton. After years of parsing words, we elected a president who we could take at face value. That doesn't seem to be the case now.
Political Parties in Flux
From time to time the dominant political parties in the U.S. mutate and take on new positions while abandoning old principles. Under Bush, the Republican Party has moved away from its traditional perceived strengths in fiscal management, governmental accountability, reducing the size of the government and a respect for individualism. Instead, they've adopted a more spendthrift domestic policy and shifted to the far right on social issues.
The Democrats too seem to be in the state of ideological flux, although a transformation that is less clear than the GOP's rightward shift. On one side we have the neo-liberal/populism of Howard Dean and on the other the New Democrat vision of Clinton. The Democrats have yet to decide which direction best suits their future a return to the liberal policies of the past or embracing the more centrist approach implemented by Clinton.
The Domestic Scene
No one can say the last four years have been great. Elephant was out of work for nearly 20 months and has many friends are still looking. Yes, there's a limit to what the president can actually do to create jobs, but there is such a thing as talking up the economy. Clinton was a master at this, unveiling small government programs or initiatives to reassure the public that the government was working to keep things growing. The current administration has been AWOL on economic issues. Spending is out of control, oil prices spiraling ever higher and no clear vision on the domestic front. But this issue can be easily trumped by the fear factor, so its traditional leading role is guiding voters is less clear.
So What's Going To Happen?
I'm still convinced that Bush's days are numbered. The only trump factor for Bush is the fear of terrorism, on all other fronts he's playing against type. So, my instincts are that the bad information on Iraq, the uncertainty of the economy and the Republican's abandonment of its traditional strengths will prove fatal to their presidential aspirations. But then, what do I know....
After reading the papers, watching the news and listening to talk radio today during my journey to Atlanta I've come to the following conclusion: No one really knows whose going to win next Tuesday. Not the pundits, not the politicians and not the campaign consultants. For the next week, we the voter have all the power. So what's going on?
There are several factors that I think are driving the uncertainty in this election.
Fear
First and foremost it is the first presidential election after the vicious attacks on 9/11. For those of you outside of DC and New York, the attacks remain scarily abstract and the images just as horrifying today as they were that fateful day. We still feel the pain in DC and New York, in fact we look around when we get on the subway, but the attacks are less abstract for us as they hit our cities and we're doing our best to move on. The fear of future attacks is Bush's only remaining advantage. If this is the defining issue of the campaign, then get ready for Bush II.
Iraq
Iraq is a qualifier on the war on terror and Bush's Achilles’ heel. Launched on the grounds that Iraq possessed WMD and could use it against American targets, many of us put our faith that the government knew what it was talking about and would fight a war to win. Now, a year and a half after the initial invasion, there are no WMD and seemingly no plan to win the peace. In fact, today's revelation that 380 tons of high explosives underscore this issue. People may believe that Bush is better suited to fight the war on terror per se, but experience a bit of dissonance on if they feel safer as Iraq continues to slip into chaos. As Elephant has mentioned time and time again, Bush was elected because he was not Al Gore or Bill Clinton. After years of parsing words, we elected a president who we could take at face value. That doesn't seem to be the case now.
Political Parties in Flux
From time to time the dominant political parties in the U.S. mutate and take on new positions while abandoning old principles. Under Bush, the Republican Party has moved away from its traditional perceived strengths in fiscal management, governmental accountability, reducing the size of the government and a respect for individualism. Instead, they've adopted a more spendthrift domestic policy and shifted to the far right on social issues.
The Democrats too seem to be in the state of ideological flux, although a transformation that is less clear than the GOP's rightward shift. On one side we have the neo-liberal/populism of Howard Dean and on the other the New Democrat vision of Clinton. The Democrats have yet to decide which direction best suits their future a return to the liberal policies of the past or embracing the more centrist approach implemented by Clinton.
The Domestic Scene
No one can say the last four years have been great. Elephant was out of work for nearly 20 months and has many friends are still looking. Yes, there's a limit to what the president can actually do to create jobs, but there is such a thing as talking up the economy. Clinton was a master at this, unveiling small government programs or initiatives to reassure the public that the government was working to keep things growing. The current administration has been AWOL on economic issues. Spending is out of control, oil prices spiraling ever higher and no clear vision on the domestic front. But this issue can be easily trumped by the fear factor, so its traditional leading role is guiding voters is less clear.
So What's Going To Happen?
I'm still convinced that Bush's days are numbered. The only trump factor for Bush is the fear of terrorism, on all other fronts he's playing against type. So, my instincts are that the bad information on Iraq, the uncertainty of the economy and the Republican's abandonment of its traditional strengths will prove fatal to their presidential aspirations. But then, what do I know....
