Friday, November 05, 2004

 

Bush's Capital Intensive Agenda

Taxes, Social Security Will Be His Investment Choices, Iraq and Deficits Loom

Ok, so we're three days into this brave new world or as the self-appointed morals tsar and gambling addict Bill Bennett would say, 'The age of relearning." (I kind of like how that sounds, much less harsh than the 'age of re-education'.). Anyway, I'm taking some solace in the fact that the President seems to be focusing on two big issues to try to secure his legacy.

He's talked about social security reform and that's probably a good thing. Democrats and Republicans both understand that the current system is not sustainable and something needs to be done about it. It's a politically thankless project, which is why its been put off for so long, but if Bush is willing to tackle it, great, we need to debate this and figure out what to do before the system goes bankrupt. It's also important to note that Social Security has probably the most active voting block behind it, seniors. So this enormous task will likely soak up a large portion of Bush's political capital he's 'earned' by his 51% victory. A complex and costly task that will absorb congress's and the public's attention for some time to come.

There's also a lot of talk about tax reform. This will prove to be a much bigger challenge. Yes, the tax code is complicated and some things like investment income are taxed twice. But the tax code is the main mechanism that is used to benefit various constituencies and as a result there is massive, entrenched interests that will work day and night to oppose any substantive changes. This idea of a national sales tax is DOA from my perspective. Too complicated and easy to get voters ire up over the fact that each time they go to the store, they'll have to pay 35% more for things. Every day will be tax day. For those Simpson's fans out there, I'd offer up the episode where the IRS takes over Krusty Burger. The dialogue:


Homer Simpson: Um ... I'll have four taxburgers, one IRSwich - withhold the lettuce - three dependent-size sodas and a FICAccino.

Squeaky-Voiced Teen: Fill out Schedule B. You should receive your burgers in 6 to 8 weeks.

So tax reform seems pretty unlikely from my perspective.

Meanwhile, more countries are leaving the Iraq Coalition. Poland and Hungary are pulling out their troops and the situation is still unstable. Oh, yes and the growing federal deficit that will be another record breaker in 2005.

So there are constraints, and the focus is on actual government programs rather than social issues, for now at least. Some things to focus on before us city dwellers are relocated by the Armies of Compassion for our 're-learning'.

Analysts Call Outlook For Bush Plan Bleak
Too Much Deficit, Not Enough Revenue
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A26458-2004Nov4.html


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