Elephant In Exile

The media is all atwitter about a recent nationwide polls showing Kerry leading Bush. That's great, but it means nothing. The presidential election is really fifty separate elections.... Here's the latest polling from the swing states....

Zogby Interactive polls conducted for the Wall Street Journal that were released this week.

Florida: Kerry-49.5%, Bush-47.9%, Nader-0.6%.
Arkansas: Bush-51%, Kerry-44%, Nader-2%.
Iowa: Kerry-49%, Bush-48%, Nader-1%.
Michigan: Kerry-49%, Bush-45%, Nader-1%.
Minnesota: Kerry-51%, Bush-44%, Nader-2%.
Nevada: Kerry-47%, Bush-44%, Nader-2%.
New Mexico: Bush-48.1%, Kerry-47.8%, Nader-2.1%.
Ohio: Bush-49%, Kerry-46%, Nader-1%.
Pennsylvania: Kerry-52%, Bush-45%, Nader-1%.
Oregon: Kerry-51%, Bush-45%, Nader-1%.
Wisconsin: Kerry-50%, Bush-45%, Nader-1%.
West Virginia: Kerry-47%, Bush-44%, Nader-2%.
Washington: Kerry-52%, Bush-44%, Nader-2%.