Tuesday, July 06, 2004


Lowering Expectations

Kerry Soon To Have Big Lead, Says Bush Campaign.

In a mass emailing to supporters, the Bush campaign on Monday sent a warning that they should expect Kerry to move out to a wide lead in national polls by the end of the month. The email -- entitled "Campaign Memo: Expected Kerry Bounce" -- was issued in the name of Bush campaign strategist Matthew Dowd. "An examination of Gallup polls in presidential elections since 1976 reveals that a challenger's Vice Presidential selection and nominating convention can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers. In fact, historical analysis suggests John Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention," wrote Dowd. The email even contained a set of charts that showed the two men tied at 47% apiece right now but projected Kerry to grab a 55% to 40% lead by the first week of August. While those numbers seen a bit exaggerated -- likely in a move to claim a victory by "surpassing expectations" -- the Bush campaign is sending a message that the race dynamics are shifting. To help blunt the impact of Kerry's short-term momentum, the Bush campaign is expected to launch a new TV spot this week featuring Senator John McCain -- which is also intended to subtly remind voters that whomever Kerry selects for VP this week was really his second choice.

(From Politics1.com)

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