Elephant In Exile

Well, it looks like events are actually going much better than expected so far for the President. Gas prices eased a bit, but are likely to go back up. Iraq's transition is going suprisingly well (thank goodness!), and the economy is doing, not great but ok. However, Elephant still predicts that tough days are ahead for BC04. First, the 9/11 Commission report will soon be released, second oil prices are going back up, third, Kerry's choice of Edwards could put Virginia and North Carolina in play(emphasis in could) or at least force BC04 to spend more money there.

Look for higher gas prices before long
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2004-07-06-oil_x.htm

Sept. 11 Panel Repeats Iraq-Osama Tie Weak
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040706/D83LJLSO0.html
But, the economy is still chugging ahead.

Economy Set for Best Growth in 20 Years
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040706/D83LFTV00.html

This mix of bad and good news will certainly help continue to the running split in the polls.