Thursday, October 14, 2004
Wither Bush...
Wow, despite what the clueless talking heads on Fox, MSNBC and CNN had to say, I thought this was by far the lamest debate yet. Both candidates were off their mark. Kerry seemed a bit grumpy and Bush was more like his first debate, although not as bad, than his second debate. Neither candidate made a fatal error nor did either candidate make a knock out blow. As I mentioned last night, I think Kerry won on consistency of tone and I thought Bush, expect for a few moments, looked pretty shabby. So where does this leave us?
Baring a terrorist attack or an "October" surprise I think we will see a steady decline in Bush's electoral numbers. Nothing major, just a few points here and there. Bush's problem isn't Kerry, it's Bush. As Elephant has said before, Bush has moved the GOP from its core areas of strength on fiscal discipline, accountable government and social libertarianism (yeah that last one's been gone from the GOP for some time...). He was elected because we didn't have to parse his every word like we had to do with Clinton. But Bush failed on the core reason he was elected...his perceived earnestness and honesty. The Iraq war is his albatross and he hasn't yet made progress on why we are there (No WMD), or what's the plan to succeed. That combined with his abandonment of core republican values, in Elephant's mind, is fatal.
The election will likely be about three issues; Iraq, the economy and terrorism. Bush wins only on terrorism. But these probably all aren't equal concerns and who's to say how voters will weigh each of these factors. But, today after the three debates, I think its down hill for Mr. Bush.
Baring a terrorist attack or an "October" surprise I think we will see a steady decline in Bush's electoral numbers. Nothing major, just a few points here and there. Bush's problem isn't Kerry, it's Bush. As Elephant has said before, Bush has moved the GOP from its core areas of strength on fiscal discipline, accountable government and social libertarianism (yeah that last one's been gone from the GOP for some time...). He was elected because we didn't have to parse his every word like we had to do with Clinton. But Bush failed on the core reason he was elected...his perceived earnestness and honesty. The Iraq war is his albatross and he hasn't yet made progress on why we are there (No WMD), or what's the plan to succeed. That combined with his abandonment of core republican values, in Elephant's mind, is fatal.
The election will likely be about three issues; Iraq, the economy and terrorism. Bush wins only on terrorism. But these probably all aren't equal concerns and who's to say how voters will weigh each of these factors. But, today after the three debates, I think its down hill for Mr. Bush.
