Elephant In Exile

Outlook Uncertain

Well, after my apoplexy yesterday about the sheer genius of Majority Leader Frist and Speaker Hastert on the allegations that the U.S. is using former Gulags to torture and secretly hold enemy combatants, I had to consult my magic eight ball on what is increasingly looking like a bleak future for our version of Dear Leader.

As I mentioned yesterday (and Pat Buchanan was so kind as to agree with) the GOP is so far from their key strengths, so off base in their approach to governing that I just can't imagine what they are thinking let alone how we as a country are gonna get through the next three years. It seems to me, things are so bad with Iraq, perceptions of the economy (i.e. fuel costs), federal spending/accountability, etc. that somethings has got to give. So, in a rare Casandra moment, I make the following predictions.

Bush needs a major, major shake up in his administration and the party itself needs a shake up in Congressional leadership, sooner rather than later. Failure to break with the current trend and the longer Bush waits to instigate change, the worse off he may be. At this point things look so bleak I think there are three likely outcomes:

1. Bush cleans house, dumps Rummy, Rove, Cheney and gets back to basics. Focuses the remainder of his term on spending cuts, fixing Iraq and reforming immigration. (ODDS: snowball's chance in Hell).
2. Bush continues on current Path: Loses Alito nomination, Congressional GOP abandons Bush and takes up their own agenda dominated by moderates (to save their own collective @sses in 2006), Bush increasingly seen as a combination of Carter-Nixon-Johnson, the shame of the party...He becomes increasingly isolated and generally mocked even by party faithful. (ODDS: better than even)
3. Bush continues on Current Path: Congressional GOP continues to try to keep the faith and follow Bush's lead, fracturing the Party. Alito's nomination goes down in flames. Dems and critics capitalize on disarray and continue to push for investigations on Iraq War intelligence, CIA leak, the Gulag issue, FEMA/Katrina and other acts of misfeasance. In the process a smoking gun is discovered on Iraq or the CIA leak issue, connecting it to Bush or Cheney. Cheney resigns and pressure mounts on an increasingly inept republican majority in Congress to impeach. 2006 elections give the Senate to the Dems, full out warfare within the party...Possible impeachment proceedings. (ODDS: Better than you might think)

Oh silly Elephant, you say to your self after reading this. Silly perhaps, but who would have thought that any political party in the United States would be so bold (eg.-Stupid) to be using the shameful prisons former Romanian Tyrant Chauchescu in our fight to bring "Freedom" to the world. The leaders within the GOP would not fire a FEMA director who was so inept as to likely exacerbate a huge disaster and laugh off the Gulag issue while spening trillions on wasteful programs and claiming that "there is no fat in the budget." Certainly not me, I never thought it'd get this bad on the GOP watch.

Of course the GOP could always fall back on their old tricks and roll out the whole gay fear mongering thing. Just in case, Senator Brownback's subcommittee on the constitution voted yesterday to approve a new version of the FMA to send to the full committee and then the Senate floor for another vote in 2006.